How Often Do I Play To My Handicap?

I’ve played 53 rounds of golf that have been for handicap adjustment this season, and my handicap is exactly the same now as it was when I teed off in the first of those rounds.
I was interested to find out the story behind that, and whether there were any clear trends including; how many times I went up, down, or stayed the same (in the ‘Buffer Zone’); whether playing on my home course was an advantage; whether I am an average player in terms of the distribution of these rounds; and what I can learn going into next year.

I looked at these 53 rounds, and where I finished in relation to the CSS for the day. The CSS is the Competition Scratch Score, and is effectively an adjusted SSS (Standard Scratch Score, US equivalent would be a course rating), taking into account the conditions of the day. If I play well I will be under the CSS and my handicap will be cut, if I play poorly I will be over the CSS, and if I am more than 1 shot above the CSS my handicap will increase. My Buffer Zone is being either exactly on the CSS, or 1 shot over.
The basic breakdown of rounds is shown in the table below;

This shows that my handicap went up in just over half the competition rounds I played in, with roughly a quarter resulting in a handicap cut, and a quarter with Buffer Zone. Playing away from my home course showed that I was less likely to get cut, but I wasn’t any more likely to go up either; the rounds that on my home course would have resulted in a cut ended up in Buffer Zone instead.

Looking at a scoring breakdown of the 53 rounds turns up the following graph, with handicap increases in red, Buffer Zone in yellow, and handicap cuts in green.

This graph has an average of CSS +2.2, a median of CSS +2, and a mode of CSS +1.

So how does this compare with the average golfer? Well firstly, it’s difficult to compare generically as the breakdown for a high handicap golfer will look very different to that of a Category 1 (handicap 5 or less) golfer. The CONGU system in the UK is based on achieving a target of CSS + 2, so using this information alone it would appear that I am fairly close to average. There is however a piece of analysis, completed by the Scottish Golf Union and published on the CONGU website, which looks at the distribution of scores for Category 1 players.

I have extrapolated the data to make it the same sample size (53) as my results for this year, and have plotted it on the graph below;

What this shows is that I am more partial to the odd disaster round (CSS +6 or more) than the average Category 1 player, however I am less likely to narrowly miss Buffer Zone (CSS +2 – CSS +5). I am more likely to make Buffer Zone or get marginally cut (CSS -2 – CSS +1), and the big reductions in handicap (CSS -3 or less) are similar to the sample size, although more sporadic in the distribution due to the very nature of them. Taking out the extremes of the table, I am about 1 shot ahead of the score distribution of the average category 1 player.

Simplifying the graph into percentages of cuts, Buffer Zones and increases, backs up this theory.

Forecasting this performance into next year, based on my current diary of 71 competition rounds, would result in 16 cuts, 19 Buffer Zone, and 36 increases. Having modelled performance using a variety of different methods, in order to get to scratch next year, I need to turn 8 of the increases into Buffer Zones, and 8 Buffer Zones into cuts (or alternatively 8 increases directly into 8 cuts, which is effectively the same end result, but it’s a lot more realistic to make a slight improvement in 16 rounds as opposed to a large improvement in 8 rounds). That would result in 24 cuts, 19 Buffer Zones, and 28 increases. Getting my handicap cut 24 times out of 71 rounds is a very tough ask, but at least I can now see the scale of what requires to be done.

In terms of pure scoring, in order to achieve this I need to shave 2 shots of every score next year. That doesn’t sound much, most times I come off of a golf course I can identify at least 2 silly missed putts, or poor chips, or drives into trouble, that have cost me a shot. The difficult bit is eliminating them. The most important rounds to do this in are the ones that are CSS +3 or less. There will always be off days, and the ones that result in finishing more than 3 shots over the CSS should just be written off, thrown in the bin, and forgotten about. The difference between CSS +2 and CSS +1 is 0.1 on my handicap, likewise for every shot below the CSS is another 0.1 closer to scratch. Shaving 2 shots off of a disaster won’t make any difference, but turning a narrow failure into Buffer Zone, or a good round into a very good round, will be where the difference is made next year.